Democrats are overperforming in 2023's special elections. Is it a clue for Biden vs. Trump?
– Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean by an average of 10% in 38 special elections held in 2023.
– The overperformance includes Democrats winning in areas that traditionally support the party and reducing GOP margins in red cities and counties.
– Factors contributing to this success include public support for abortion access after the Supreme Court's decision last year and lingering apprehension over Trump's comeback bid.
– Special elections are not perfect predictors, but similar elections in 2017 and 2019 preceded Democratic successes in 2018 and 2020.
– Some Republican operatives are concerned about the trend and urge the party to address the abortion issue and unite over the 2024 primary.
– Democrats remain divided over the significance of the trend, with some optimistic about its potential impact on November 2024.
– Beyond special elections, Democrats face competitive regular races in 2023, with some level of confidence in their performance.
Democrats have been overperforming in 2023's special elections compared to the partisan lean by an average of 10%.
This could indicate positive prospects for the Democratic Party in future elections, including the 2024 presidential race between Biden and Trump.