Democrats are overperforming in 2023's special elections. Is it a clue for Biden vs. Trump?

[{"selector":"#anim-025df4c0-447c-4c23-b17a-982cff685339","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5e708fa8-4d0e-4800-9bb8-59922473b5ba","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 168.97774%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6cf9261a-6654-40dd-a008-a548a292c56a [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] – Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean by an average of 10% in 38 special elections held in 2023.

[{"selector":"#anim-4c42f4ad-4e41-4a86-b2f2-67c10a2b40d0 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f987c596-0a25-431e-b8b5-56c1af797b61","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-077510c4-0e3f-428a-9850-bf07edf18a60","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 177.02192%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] – The overperformance includes Democrats winning in areas that traditionally support the party and reducing GOP margins in red cities and counties.

[{"selector":"#anim-d5fc5ada-7590-4503-82a4-d17832c4d299 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-aff8ecb5-e787-4a22-a412-de9663f5f461","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1402b5e0-683a-4939-9de9-1aada76f707b","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 168.77052%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] – Factors contributing to this success include public support for abortion access after the Supreme Court's decision last year and lingering apprehension over Trump's comeback bid.

[{"selector":"#anim-cc68e391-f1a4-455e-8b9c-a61f3c72853a [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0e5c57b3-ec4c-4dc7-9066-d9322593c2c6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b7e8e7ec-e4da-4918-abdf-5372547d38c8","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 228.17773%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] – Special elections are not perfect predictors, but similar elections in 2017 and 2019 preceded Democratic successes in 2018 and 2020.

[{"selector":"#anim-3469a2d6-961d-431c-99e6-f6c69f5ed43c [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a6b2aa10-a1a0-4497-a2c7-833d3fc191b7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-cc8a5afd-8768-4162-a8d2-8d6bc7f5888e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 228.17773%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] – Some Republican operatives are concerned about the trend and urge the party to address the abortion issue and unite over the 2024 primary.

[{"selector":"#anim-7ae40f33-292f-4e2a-8d3d-04c34b791db0 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d70208c6-b5a2-4a28-ab65-b39a660804aa","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ede43642-04c4-4f00-bd81-75b16c9fdeae","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 228.17773%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] – Democrats remain divided over the significance of the trend, with some optimistic about its potential impact on November 2024.

[{"selector":"#anim-b1163fdc-4d0b-4891-bd0f-b586d7f4140f [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-581b419b-02ca-4f05-8f0c-636e846f50ef","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8edd7354-f132-4e0b-ac39-44c4686ff41d","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 228.17773%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] – Beyond special elections, Democrats face competitive regular races in 2023, with some level of confidence in their performance.

[{"selector":"#anim-e0531819-7b2b-45e7-bbb0-cf9546a4de4f [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d8feadc2-906e-4af2-a490-fd6228032525","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6bcdbb59-a19f-431a-b3ef-671f364065d9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 228.17773%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Democrats have been overperforming in 2023's special elections compared to the partisan lean by an average of 10%.

[{"selector":"#anim-97c2e683-3556-4ade-b2db-0f0a45d63f78 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-68.28140615595608%, 0, 0) translate(-25%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0) translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-352f969c-eb15-459c-9189-38e00860e865","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-fbf98338-6adc-46fb-a936-efee4dbe341d","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 195.35764%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] This could indicate positive prospects for the Democratic Party in future elections, including the 2024 presidential race between Biden and Trump.